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originally posted in:Guardian Radio Alliance
Edited by It Resolves:
6/10/2014 1:16:49 AM
63
The Beta Window - Empirical Evidence
There has been a ton of guesses about when the beta will be, but I think using some simple known quantities we can narrow it down to around a 30-40 day time period.
[u]Facts:[/u]
1. Summer, from a meteorological perspective, is defined as the months of June, July, and August.
2. E3 is June 10-12, 2014
3. Release date is September 9, 2014
[u]Inferred Assumptions:[/u]
A. From (1) we know that the beta must be in a 90 day window
B. From a marketing perspective E3 provides an excellent springboard for games releasing in the second half of the year. Destiny will have a playable version on the floor to boost hype for pre-orders and, IMHO, the Beta.
C. In order to "go Gold" four weeks before release, which is an industry average, Bungie will need to deliver the Master CD to manufacturing on or around August 10.
Using A-C as our assumptions based on the facts we can narrow the Beta window down to June 13 - August 10. I think we can make a fair assumption that Bungie will want 2-3 weeks prior to "going Gold" to put the things they've learned from the Beta into effect. [b]This puts the Beta window between June 13 - July 27.[/b]
[b]Personally I think it would be awesome if the Beta started at the conclusion of E3, giving early access to PS3/4 owners on that weekend, June 13-15th[/b], and then opening it up to Xbox owners on the 16th and ending on the 29th of June, two weeks later. Either that or it takes place sometime in the month of July, which is perfect because my birthday is in that month.
Whatdayathink? Am I right? Am I wrong? Do you think Bungie is going to do a fake out and put the Beta out before E3?
On a side note I really think that those of us that pre-ordered last year should get some sort of "true fan" bonus, whether that is an emblem or armor effect or something else.
EDIT: NAILED IT!!
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PSN release date is July 17th and Xbox is July 21st
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So they are picking who is getting to play the alpha? I pre ordered destiny October of 2013 and signed up for alpha within a few hours of it being out. So if I don't get alpha I'm gonna be pissed. And I also think us who pre ordered it last year should get some kind of extra item. That'd be cool.
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4 RepliesWell the Playstation plan has been layed out for all to see; [url=http://www.cnet.com/au/news/sony-hits-all-the-playstation-high-notes-at-e3-2014/]Destiny's first-look [u]alpha is available exclusively to PS4 players this Thursday[/u], while the Destiny multiplayer beta will be available exclusively to the PlayStation platform [u]on July 17[/u][/url] ([i]and if your on xbox ... who the hell cares ... certainly not bungie[/i])
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2 RepliesBumping to toot my own horn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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1 ReplyEdited by Said teh Bear: 5/7/2014 5:51:00 PMTheir twitter just announced it will take place in July
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4 RepliesEdited by LizardMWK: 2/17/2014 2:25:17 AMI like where y'all are going with this, but look, why don't we just take this a step further? LET'S JELLYBEAN THIS SUCKA. You know what I'm talking about, right? (if not, see attached video from the BBC.) If you fill a jar with jelly beans and ask 100 people to guess the amount, the jelly bean principle suggests that the average guess will be close to the real answer. So, here are the guesses that people have made in this thread so far: (note: Most people guessed a range &/or used vague terms like "mid-June". I translated the vagaries into concrete ranges (e.g. "mid-July" = 7/15/2014), then use the midpoint of that range as that person's guess. This ain't exactly scientific.) 22-Jul-2014 BobObba 7-Jun-2014 Cobra Commander 26-Jun-2014 Daaaah Whoosh 19-Jun-2014 DiPolarPilot 23-Jun-2014 Ison 20-Jun-2014 KingGuerilla55 30-Jun-2014 LizardMWK 1-Apr-2014 mickey young 7-Jul-2014 NZRusty 7-Jul-2014 Salient Sin 20-Jun-2014 TechnoKat (agreed w/ KingGuerilla55's guess) 8-May-2014 theforceswithin That makes the average date... 15 June 2014! (the Sunday after E3) (btw I'm guessing June 30th as the PS4 early-beta launch date, with the general beta launching a week later on Bungie Day.)
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Narrowed down the window even further! :D
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4 RepliesWell, it looks like the BWU this week has proven me wrong and those that predicted the Beta window to be similar to the one for Reach get a cookie. In retrospect I should have taken Reach's time frame into consideration, but I think my dream of E3 Beta Launch was blinding my judgement a bit. Can't wait to play Destiny with you all in eight weeks! [url]http://www.bungie.net/7_Bungie-Weekly-Update---02282014/en/News/News?aid=11440[/url]
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the beta starts the extacly same day as E3 start. People there will play PvP, we at home start play it in PvE, then, after E3, will be available PvP for Beta testers, too.
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Edited by Striker: 5/1/2014 8:23:43 PMThis is my guess for Bungie, E3, and the Beta: I'm guessing Sony will have their press conference the first day of E3 on June 10th (just my prediction). Bungie will no doubt have more gameplay at Sony's press conference like they did last year. At the end of the gameplay, they will run a new trailer, and at the end reveal the Beta date; [b]6/17/14[/b]. Why that date? Bungie will have one week to build hype and get people ready for the Beta. I can almost guarantee Bungie will not slate the Beta for a day after E3, that's just crazy. One week for everyone to spread the word. To build on the hype, they will have the remainder of E3 to showcase the Multiplayer, as they already confirmed Multiplayer will be playable at E3. [b]6/17/14[/b], remember that date.
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4 RepliesJust because of all the Sony Vs. Microsoft with Destiny debate, why would playstation get access first followed by xbox after several days. Why would they not all start simultaneously? Otherwise good analysis, but lets not step on anyone's feet here.
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12th June PS4 Destiny Beta Launch
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Hory shet. Nice use of the law of the jungle. I mean laws of deduction
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2 RepliesI fully expect the Beta launch date to be announced at E3, during the Sony conference (As Sony players get first access). This would be followed by an announcement on the Bungie.net homepage with details on the Beta, including that emails would be going out and with information on how to access the beta on the various consoles. Assuming that Bungie will have a week between the sending of emails and the launch of the Beta, to work out all the kinks and make final preparations, the Sony beta would launch on June 17th/June 18th. Access to the Sony beta is exclusive for a week as emails continue to be sent out to Xbox users, who have live access to the beta starting June 24th/25th. Both the Sony and Xbox beta then run concurrent up until Bungie Day (July 7th, 12 days after the Xbox Beta's launch), which will be the final day for the beta. This then gives Bungie more than a month to make final kinks and bug tuning before going Gold in August.
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Day after E3 confirmed.
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Just going to toot my own horn: From what we can infer from what DeeJ has said the Beta is going to be Post E3! W00t!
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Beta Launches before E3. I just know it.
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2 RepliesDude. It's totally launching on Bungie Day. Put me on the list.
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1 ReplyPlease no haha ill be gone that whole time period.
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beta is early summer summer solstice on june 21 bungie day on july 7 2 week window right there my theory considering they just done the pre alpha i think it makes sense
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2 RepliesGood guess. We need more of these posts, against the alternatives of marty, what class/race, and etc.....
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Its obviously 7/7/2014 or 7/14/2014. Look at em numbers line up so nicely
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After the most recent weekly update. I'm leaning toward 8 weeks from now which puts it at the end of April. I know that is strictly speaking not summer however fiscally it does fall in the Sumer quarter
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Such topics are what I want to see on here!
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At work (GameStop) it was floating around for the longest time that the beta would start in Feb for Playstation and sometime in summer for Xbox. Since this month is almost up, I'd have to agree that a mid summer beta seems more likely. However, such a massive project would likely benefit from a longer test period to determine and resolve as many issues as possible, lest there be an issue like what rockstar had with GTA Online, where the first month of online play was nearly too buggy to deal with. A pre-E3 beta may also give them ammo to use at conference where they may have access to more fan feedback, more images/videos of gameplay, and more raw data to translate into average user experience. I'd also have to agree that splitting the data between the two brands would be likely as it would allow Bungie to more effectively gather the data they need on two platforms, rather than be inundated with data from all four. However, I imagine there will be a server stress test for running all platforms, so there may be a crossover in the time table. Either way, I cannot wait for the event, or the game. It may be the last game I ever buy if it's anywhere near as good as I hope it will be, especially if they constantly expand it with DLC.
