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Edited by KamoKing: 2/8/2015 7:13:51 PM
60

Xur's Loot Table Concept PROVEN??? (Legitimate)

I Understand.

538

Possibly True.

396

This Must Be It!

39

I Don't Understand.

347

I Believe Your Wrong.

465

[b][i][u]Update Note:[/u][/i][/b] Don't Touch Me's = Gauntlet Engrams? [b][u]Disclaimer:[/u][/b] I mean no harm to Bungie by posting this, I only have some factual "evidence" that this is true, it was overall merely an idea I got. [b][u]MAJOR NOTE-[/u][/b] Some of the examples I have written here were all written before Friday when Xur came this weekend, However, my main point here is that Xur's wares "prove" that my theory on when Xur sells engrams, what type of engram it is, and the idea that Exotics can turn into themselves. [b][u]Quick Answer:[/u][/b] It's somewhat of a Tournament Bracket involving Combinations of items to equal other items. [b][u]Note:[/u][/b] This will take me hours to fill out and even still it may be hard to read or understand since I have no real image of it. For the extended explanation of this, it may take days for me to fully complete it, but along the way you may read what I have. [b][u]Another Note:[/u][/b] Please post/reply here so I can see what you guys are currently thinking about it. [b][i][u]My Idea...[/u][/i][/b] So...how about we start with a simple say...12 [url=http://www.samplewords.com/printable-16-team-tournament-bracket/]Bracket[/url] Tournament, by that I mean that we would have 6 Fights [b](Easier to Understand with 6 Fights rather than 12,)[/b] each fight being a 1v1, and at the very end we have but 1 single fight...and a single bracket. Now what if we flipped that Tournament Bracket around, and instead it started with a single bracket and expanded out to 12...but each bracket was filled with an Exotic armor piece now... [b][u]The Beginning...[/u][/b] So, you know how Xur recently sold Radiant Dance Machines?[b](I Love Them.)[/b] Well, before that he had sold the Achlyophage Symbiote. Now...imagine if Achlyophage Symbiote, a common Hunter exotic, gives Xur a chance of 5 other exotics that he may sell the next week.This meaning that Achlyophage could have a 20% chance of turning into Radiant Dance Machines, 30% chance of Mask of The Third Man and so on. So if you imagine that each exotic has a chance of turning into another exotic (including itself) then we can make slight predictions of what he may sell next week. [b]UPDATE-[/b] Radiant Dance Machines can turn into Don't Touch Me. ("Proven") [b][u]Weapon Combination[/u][/b] [b]MAJOR NOTE-[/b] Xur sold Don't Touch Me, Stand Asides, and Starfire Protocol the last time he sold Dragons Breath and ONCE AGAIN he is selling the same armor exotics and guess what weapon? Dragons Breath. So, you're possibly wondering what this may have to do with what weapons Xur may sell. But you see, this deals with what armor he is selling. So you remember when Xur sold Gjallarhorn? [b](Pretty Amazing)[/b] Well, that weekend, I believe he indeed sold Sunbreakers, Lucky Raspberry, and Helm of Inmost Light. Now including that Gjallarhorn is the best weapon in the game, it is very likely that [b]Xur must sell those same exotics the same weekend or only if a single one of those exotics were allowed to be interchangeable for him TO sell it.[/b] But wait...what if the weapon he sold last week also has to be in the mix? Well, Xur sold Red Death the weekend before, this overall meaning that Xur may ALSO have to sell Red Death the week beforehand to allow Xur to sell Gjallarhorn. This may seem like a lot, but for a weapon like Gjallarhorn, it's possible that it must be this precise. Now, we must also consider the possibility that Bungie themselves put Gjallarhorn up for sale, that meaning that anything the weekend before that would mean nothing to this combination. That said, it also says that the combination of exotics needed for Gjallarhorn could've also been set by Bungie [b]ALSO[/b] meaning that we may still not have any clue to what exotic combination must be made to get Gjallarhorn!!! [b][u]Where's the Synthesis? I need my Engrams!!![/u][/b] Well, you have probably already guessed what this part is about if you've read it all, and yes, it may as well be true. So if we think about how combinations of exotics affect weapons potentially then we can say the same towards when Xur sells exotic engrams and heavy synthesis. Basically like I mentioned, only certain combinations of exotics must be sold in order for Xur to sell synthesis and engrams. But wait...what if it all depended on a single exotic or 2 to have Xur sell one or the other? Then it means that it would be more common, but it does not seem like it's at all common anymore. What about types of engrams? Well, we could potentially say that each exotic capable of making Xur sell engrams also has a set of engrams for him TO sell [b](Ex: Don't Touch Me would give Xur a chance of selling either Helmet or Gauntlet engrams.)[/b] [b]UPDATE-[/b] My Example: [b](Ex: Don't Touch Me would give Xur a chance of selling either Helmet or Gauntlet engrams next.)[/b] HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH "PROVEN" [b][u]Xur's Location[/u][/b] Soooo, after a lot of research into Xur's lacation and wares all the way up to now, I can straight up say that Xur's location doesn't directly affect what he may be selling. But...what if his location encourages some items to be sold? Maybe if he's in one spot he has a higher chance of an exotic or less of a chance in a different location? What if his location encourages synthesis to be sold? What if it also affects engrams? I see no real answers in his items, but it is always an idea...

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  • Hes random every weekend that is all u need 2 know .... dont bother reading anthing above or below.

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    • I'm inclined to think that, with Xur only showing up 52 times a year compared to the number of exotics it would take entirely too long to get hard evidence to really support this. Not to mention it would be a lot more effort on Bungies part to implement a system you're describeing. I'm less inclined to believe. That said I think it's an interesting theory and it would be really fascinating if it were true.

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    • Im pretty sure he's rng, but since all he sells are exotics the rarer ones have a lower drop rate, and the more common ones a higher drop rate.

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      • Edited by BTxR_GHOST: 2/13/2015 5:37:19 AM
        I always thought of it like this: Every week he needs to sell one Titan piece, one Hunter, one warlock, and a weapon. The body part he sells is like a slot machine idea, where its rng to determine if it's helm, arms, chest, or legs. Once those are determined, then it rolls again to decide which exotic fits that category, ie warlock helm, Titan arms, etc. it would explain why sun breakers were sold so frequently because before TDB, they were the only warlock arms so every week they had a 33% chance by default of being picked (boots weren't available at this time). This would now hold true to mk.44 stand asides and radiant dance machines because they're the only boots for Titan and Hunter. I think the same idea applies to engrams with the 'none' option also in the mix Heavy synth would be a 5050 yes or no. Xür sold don't touch me 3x in the past 4 weeks, possibly because Hunter arms hit each time and then it was a 5050 shot between DTM and spine of ahamkara. I think the same applies for weapons too, but a bit different. A roll determines primary, special, or heavy but some weapons, like gjallarhorn, are programmed to have less of a chance because of how powerful they are. Since there's only 4 heavys that Xür can sell, consider that GHorn and Thunderlord would be less likely to get picked, leaving dragons breath and truth to be sold a lot more if a heavy gets picked for that week. Thoughts? *Edited to correct % error

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        • Maybe this explains heart of praxic fire hard light thunderlord universal remote they only had a chance the very first week so now there stuck outside loot table

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        • Good job, ur smart

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          • Xur lactates?

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            • Uggghhhhh, damn, I hate/love doing research on this...still not sure what to do next...

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              • :T

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                • Xur's loot table is not Random, Bungie simply chooses what they want to sell. The idea that it is random with Xur selling NLB weeks in a row is preposterous. The probability of those odds are the same as lightning striking the same spot 25 times. It really shouldn't take all your theory to figure that one out.

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                  • I see what you're saying but I think you're trying to see a pattern where there isn't one. Why would the designer lean towards this method? Wouldn't simple RNG be easier to code?

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                  • I.. But... Wha... Ow

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                  • You missed a suggestion that says, "nobody cares"

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                    • Not sure what I'll do next...

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                      • Ok I get that you put a lot of time into this theory but. Deej already said that xur follows the same rng as the rest of the game, he wrote about this after they sold the icebreaker and everyone screamed "ILUMINATII CONFIRMED!!!" Sorry to say but Deej already said that Xur is indeed RNG but they can manipulate his timings and certain things about him.

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                        • I c wat u sayin seems like u spent time on this. Let's see what happens

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                          • Very interesting theory and If it really comes down to that many variables it's going to be quite difficult for everything to line up so xur will sell ghorn since there's quite a few places something could go wrong and completely change what xur sells

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                            • I just added a short sentence as to my opinion now-top of page. -[b]Slight Update[/b] Possible? True? 100%?

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                            • So what I am gathering from this, is that depending on what items are sold, specific items that may only be sold when said item was the week before, something like this Each item sold by Xur has its own "Inventory Tree" When items are sold, an item out of each tree per item sold will change, or even stay the same if a loop was created by subsequent exotics, causing a different item per trees to correct the loop? An example would be the Don't Touch Me gauntlets creating a loop, forcing Dragon's Breath to be sold again, because it was in 2 items inventory tree's

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                              • I love you

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                                • Too long, voted randomly to see results. I suggest a summed up one.

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                                  • Sorry but this is nonsense. The most likely scenario is a weighted rng system where Bungie can easily change the probability of an item showing up. They could also pick a "dlc only weekend" that we've seen a few times. On a side note, if people cared you wouldn't have to bump your own thread so much

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                                    • [b]NEW UPDATE![/b] I'm sorry about it being a short topic and having no real conclusion, but I did a LOT of research on it : / I will try to make the next portion better!

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                                    • Who cares

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                                      • Wow man you put a lot of thought into into this good theory it would be cool if it ended up being true.

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                                        • Dude, I hate to blow your mind after all the thought and research you put into this, and all the writing you did (so much writing). But I talked to Xur, and he told me that what he sells is determined by one factor. [spoiler]He sells the stuff that is closest to his loading dock on Friday morning.[/spoiler]

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