With age comes pattern recognition. At least it does with me.
However I have only been on the forums during Halo 3 and Halo: Reach's release. I didn't bother to notice the fluctuations in forum activity until now.
So what can the ancients tell me about the forum activity once Destiny is near, and when it arrives? I understand that a considerable amount depends on the success of Destiny.
But from Halo: CE, Halo 2, Halo 3, Halo 3: ODST and Halo: Reach have you noticed any 'maximum forum activity' intervals and the duration of their forum activity until it inevitably dies down?
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] x Foman123 x [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy [/quote]Pretty good. Here's mine: 1. Game developer releases teaser trailer. 2. Forums explode! Wild speculation, insane gameplay expectations, wildly complicated "idea" threads, 10,000-word posts about the potential storyline! 3. Things calm down. 4. Game developer releases content about possible features. 5. Forums explode! Raging flamewars, irrationally confident fans and haters clash, fans who posted under number 2 complain that their idea has not been implemented, passionate fans defend game developer's decision, and trolls take advantage of the mayhem to pour fuel on the fire! 6. Things calm down. 7. Repeat steps 2-6 until launch. 8. Launch. 9. Repeat steps 5-6. [/quote]Seems like a solid prediction. 4 will be E3 2013.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] x Foman123 x [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy [/quote]Pretty good. Here's mine: 1. Game developer releases teaser trailer. 2. Forums explode! Wild speculation, insane gameplay expectations, wildly complicated "idea" threads, 10,000-word posts about the potential storyline! 3. Things calm down. 4. Game developer releases content about possible features. 5. Forums explode! Raging flamewars, irrationally confident fans and haters clash, fans who posted under number 2 complain that their idea has not been implemented, passionate fans defend game developer's decision, and trolls take advantage of the mayhem to pour fuel on the fire! 6. Things calm down. 7. Repeat steps 2-6 until launch. 8. Launch. 9. Repeat steps 5-6. [/quote] Yeah like that would ever happen.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy [/quote]Pretty good. Here's mine: 1. Game developer releases teaser trailer. 2. Forums explode! Wild speculation, insane gameplay expectations, wildly complicated "idea" threads, 10,000-word posts about the potential storyline! 3. Things calm down. 4. Game developer releases content about possible features. 5. Forums explode! Raging flamewars, irrationally confident fans and haters clash, fans who posted under number 2 complain that their idea has not been implemented, passionate fans defend game developer's decision, and trolls take advantage of the mayhem to pour fuel on the fire! 6. Things calm down. 7. Repeat steps 2-6 until launch. 8. Launch. 9. Repeat steps 5-6. [Edited on 10.07.2012 10:06 PM PDT]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] I ColdEmbrace I Well, this new game won't be exclusive to Xbox 360 so I'm expecting to see this place explode with activity. *puts on helmet* I'm ready.[/quote] Possibly. I sometimes think this place wont get to many new members until well after the new game is released. [Edited on 10.07.2012 9:37 PM PDT]
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Well, this new game won't be exclusive to Xbox 360 so I'm expecting to see this place explode with activity. *puts on helmet* I'm ready.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.[/quote]
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What happen if I told you that the word "Destiny" is not going to be the name of Bungie's next game? *Please don't stare at me Achronos!*
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The stars predict activity levels will rise, apart from that, it's hard to tell. It's a new IP, so it's not like we can really compare. Seriously, if all goes to plan there will be one word to describe the forum... 'Hype'!
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It will be blowing up with activity, just like the Halo 3 Forum, ODST Forum and the Reach Forum that I remember when they were the "hot topics" of this site.
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If you don't mind, Izak609, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list: [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Izak609 If you don't mind, spawn031, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list: 0: Random speculation and ideas for game. [quote]1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer. 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations. 3: Game developer releases content about possible features. 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game. 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it. 7. Game is released and everyone is happy.[/quote]8. Good topics about easter eggs, the story, glitches, game nights, &c. 9. Boasting, and lame threads begin. 10. Complaining... 11. Trolling leads to heavier moderation. 12. Population of forum slowly decreases. 13a. Burritosenior gets banned. 13b. Burritosenior gets banned. 13c. Burritosenior gets banned. 14. Little activity... 15. Forum gets achieved/deleted.[/quote] OT: I have not really been here long enough to know, but it sure will be interesting. [Edited on 10.07.2012 12:19 PM PDT]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] lime013 It's a new project, so I'm expecting awe and excitement. [/quote] With Bungies track record I think we will get what we want.
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Wasn't here for CE. All I know is that for the sequels folks will inevitably scream "[current] game is terrible, [preious game] was awesome!" for each new game released. The 7 steps by spawn are also pretty accurate, though I think #7 should be a mixed answer.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy [/quote] Pretty much this. Hahaha
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It's a new project, so I'm expecting awe and excitement.
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Stage 1: speculation and hype phase Stage 2: Bungie reveals information, people compare it to Halo Stage 3: Destiny gets its own forum Stage 4: steps and 2 keep repeating Stage 5: game is released, people then judge it We'll get a lot of new members, and a lot more activity.
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It will just be a huge cesspool of fanboys posting things like "adapt" or "you suck." Everyone who disagrees with the game is labeled a "troll." Then tighter moderation/patches/competing games launching will lower the population of the forum until it dies off, or gets rolled in with lore/singleplayer forums (if also provided). The multiplayer forum will always be, and has always been the worst.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Uriel S167 Prediction like that only happen when enough beer is involved...[/quote]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 New IP's may work slightly different. I've used this mainly for entire game franchises and sequels. Halo 2/3/ODST/Reach/4 all went through this and it's not entirely different from other franchises - Starcraft, Gears, COD, Battlefield, EA sports, etc. There also may be an optional step between 5/6 of the developer releasing a playable beta - but of course there is usually a feedback forum. [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] chubbz I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game. [/quote][/quote] I think that as more features get announced they'll be met with optimism, until the game is released and we all have a chance to see how it really works. If it works poorly and some form of it returns for subsequent games then I think your original timeline would work, since it's now a franchise.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Bungie Sam So what can the ancients tell me about the forum activity once Destiny is near, and when it arrives?[/quote] [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoF_a0-7xVQ]The wheels on the bus go round and round.[/url]
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I'm expecting a huge increase in posts per day when the first trailer or ViDoc hits. After that it will taper down again. As others have said: it all depends on the timing of media and what not.
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If you don't mind, spawn031, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list: 0: Random speculation and ideas for game. [quote]1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer. 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations. 3: Game developer releases content about possible features. 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game. 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it. 7. Game is released and everyone is happy.[/quote]8. Good topics about easter eggs, the story, glitches, game nights, &c. 9. Boasting, and lame threads begin. 10. Complaining... 11. Trolling leads to heavier moderation. 12. Population of forum slowly decreases. 13. Burritosenior gets banned. 14. Little activity... 15. Forum gets achieved/deleted. [Edited on 10.07.2012 9:49 AM PDT]
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New IP's may work slightly different. I've used this mainly for entire game franchises and sequels. Halo 2/3/ODST/Reach/4 all went through this and it's not entirely different from other franchises - Starcraft, Gears, COD, Battlefield, EA sports, etc. There also may be an optional step between 5/6 of the developer releasing a playable beta - but of course there is usually a feedback forum. [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] chubbz I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game. [/quote]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] chubbz I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game. [/quote]We know it's a shooter of some kind though, and comparison to other shooters on the market will inevitably be drawn.
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Typically, the forum pattern is just like: 1. Announce Trailer 2. Forum Creation 3. Bajillion posts within a day 4. Everyone speculates till the next trailer comese out. As for marketing, this one will be different. It will be hard to predict for a few reasons: A.) Since Microsoft is no longer in control of how things will go down, it really can go anyway possible. Microsoft controlled nearly all of the marketing for the Halo games, so it was always up for Microsoft to decide, with little input from Microsoft. B.) Bungie has a lot more control over their own game now and how things get published. I've seen Bungie looking for positions in the company for marketing and publishing, so it looks as if Bungie has some more say in what goes down for how the game gets published. Also with a new publishing company, things might change a bit, which brings me to my next point. C.) New publishing company. In some way, Activision probably has some say in how the thing gets marketed. That is part of their job for being a publisher. D.) With all of the above, this is the first time Bungie is going through something like this, even before Halo. This is the first time in 11 years, Bungie has control of how things get marketed, and plan things out. Bungie is new to this whole "Oh, so we can actually plan how the games gets released?" situation. So who knows how it will go down? It really can go anyway they want. My prediction is that they just do a typical release for a game. Maybe it will, maybe it wont. The only people that know are the people who can't say anything. [Edited on 10.07.2012 9:14 AM PDT]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] spawn031 Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.[/quote] I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game. [Edited on 10.07.2012 9:08 AM PDT]
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Franchise game development chart: 1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer 2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations 3: Game developer releases content about possible features 4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game 5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release. 6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it 7. Game is released and everyone is happy Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.