Hi Guys, [b]My goal with this graph is to show players the amount of time required to progress so that everyone can make their own decision as to wether the grind is worth it or not.[/b] I have made an attempt to Model Bungie's RNG algorithm for the raids. I have collected data from approximately 26 guardians to generate a curve of LIGHT vs NUMBER of raids completed for both Normal and Hard mode. I then merged the Normal and Hard Raid completions for players to visualize the grind requirements to reach 320 light. [url]http://postimg.org/image/6sf7np3r7/[/url] As was expected, the progression is not linear. It is relatively easy to jump from 285 up to 310-313 light in a few raids. Progression slows down significantly once your light reaches around 315. This type of graph was expected by many, but without knowing Bungie's parameters, it was impossible to estimate the curve of the graph and thus the level of grind required to reach max light. [b]I MYSELF BELIEVED THAT I SHOULD REACH MAX LIGHT by 12-14 RAIDS. [/b] Some of the specific things we don't know about bungie RNG: [b]Is the light RNG per item completely random? [/b] This would mean the chance to get a 320 item is the same as getting a 310 item. [b]Is it weighted?[/b] For example, Is there a greater chance to drop low light items? Is there a greater chance to drop boots vs helmet? [b]Is it smart?[/b] Does the system know your light and adjust accordingly? Do you get punished next raid if you got a good drop in the previous raid? I will make some clarifications and comments as issues surface... [b]EDIT 1: Data Collection[/b]: I included partial raids in the making of this data set. A raid without completion of Oryx was assigned a value of 0.8 raids. I also gathered data from a diverse pool. I included non-hardcore players with 1-2 completions, PVE players with multiple completions and slo included data from destiny tracker.com top 100 list. [b]EDIT 2: How to interpret the data[/b]: The circles are actual data points from real players collected from a previous post, friends and destiny tracker top 100. This was done to get a varied sample size (casuals, dedicated players and top players). The fuzzy lines are what the algorithm predicts your light will be and should in theory apply to 95% percent of the population. However, this graph is not an ultimately predictor, just a general guideline. There will be outliers (extremely unlucky or extremely lucky with RNG), however my prediction is that even those extremes will fall relatively close to the graph. [b]EDIT 3[/b]: I am aware that the 320 is not attainable because of an artifact. The shape of the curve is not affected greatly by this and has been taken account into the equation. [b]EDIT 4: EXAMPLE.[/b] I will use an example on how this predictive graph works. We will use the data from RidonKulous83 who is a detractor from my work and has called it "Junk science" (see comments below). By looking at destinytracker.com data, we can see that Ridonkoulos83 has completed 9 raids total, and if he infused/moved his guns into one character his light would be around 313.5 I have now added Ridonkoulos83 to the graph and you can see that he fits nicely into the prediction. [url]http://postimg.org/image/56fyb83bn/[/url]