This is my guess: Sales numbers will be slightly less than Vanilla Launch or around on par with those numbers. I don't think D2 will blow Vanilla sales numbers out of the water.
I also think that even if D2 sales numbers break even, it will not represent the kind of grand success Bungie would want you to believe it is. Consider this: Vanilla's sales numbers consisted ENTIRELY of sales on two brands of consoles: PS and Xbox.
D2 will launch on three platforms: PC, XBONE, and PS4. If they sell the same number of copies of D2 as they did Vanilla, it simply means that they lost sales to console players who effectively quit the game or didn't re-up, and they broke even by selling the game to PC users instead. To say this differently, they will have expanded the availability of the game to other players, but were unable to expand their total customer base. And of course, this begins to look far worse if sales numbers of D2 don't even break even with those at launch of D1.
Will it be a success? I think it'll be a success with certain members of the communities: Players who are hardcore, super sweaty, ultra competitive PVP players will probably love the game. Casuals who just log on a couple of times a week to run a strike will probably love the game. But the results will likely be a big mixed bag of nuts for those who lie in between those two groups - and I would assert that those players make up a majority of the community.
For those players and players like myself, D2 is just the same old shit, just a different package. They didn't separate PVE from PVP, they went out of their way to develop the game exclusively for PVP, and will only try to "make it work" in PVE, meaning PVE is going to be playing second fiddle, and PVE players will just have to do what they can to get by. This effectively means that the loot-n-shoot aspect of this game is effectively dead because anything that makes you feel powerful in PVE will wreck balance in PVP. And that is part of what attracted me to this game in the first place.
Overall, I'm going to say that its going to be a whole lot of MEH. It'll be like Dragon Age 2. As a stand alone game, it was a decent game. But was it better than the original (Dragon Age Origins) - not even CLOSE.
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Bearbeitet von w3rdblader: 7/2/2017 3:02:14 PMApparently D2 has about 200k preorders and destiny had over a million. I really don't care to verify these numbers, but if they are accurate then destiny 2 will be a huge failure in Activision eyes. BUT if the 200k that all preordered will buy all the expansions and eververse and emotes, etc. Then Destiny 2 will still be quite profitable.
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It's certainly not going to live up to the promise that the game still has - we can accept that now and just play it on it's merits. But yeah that's a disappointing situation and can understand why for some that's a bridge too far. More importantly, I completely agree with your comments on Dragon Age 2. That game really hacked me off. A thousand times inferior to DA:Origins.
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[quote]It's certainly not going to live up to the promise that the game still has - we can accept that now and just play it on it's merits. But yeah that's a disappointing situation and can understand why for some that's a bridge too far.[/quote] Too far for me. I have dumped far too many dollars and hours into this game to merely accept that the game is just going to become some cheap Halo knockoff. It is obvious what they meant when they said "we're tired of making halo games" is that they were tired of making halo games that were exclusive to XBOX concoles. [quote] More importantly, I completely agree with your comments on Dragon Age 2. That game really hacked me off. A thousand times inferior to DA:Origins.[/quote] DA2 was a good game. Don't get me wrong on this. If the game had instead been called Dragon Age rather than Dragon Age 2 and it was a standalone game, it probably would have been at least an 8.5/10. It was a very good game, a fun game, and the story was good, and the combat system was solid. The problem with DA2 isn't that it wasn't a good game. The problem was that it came after DAO, which was a work of art. The music, the story, the gameplay, the character development, etc. in DAO were all 10/10. That game had soul, and when one of your party members died or left the group, it was like you were getting your gut ripped out over and over again.
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DA:O got me in to that type of game, it was superb. DA2 just felt wrong. No soul, like you say, and just couldn't enjoy it at all.
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Yep. I'm hoping DA3 is better, but I refuse to play it until DA2 becomes backwards compatible and I can play all 3 on the same console. As much as DA2 represents a low point in the series, it still sets things up for DA3, and so it wouldn't be bad to go relive that adventure again.
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Bearbeitet von Devasstator: 6/29/2017 1:43:59 AMIt will land with a meh, I'm sure. Some of the changes and story will be hyped for super casual players and those who left a long time ago, but the end game will be the same boring small content loop. I think bungies gamble thinking that forced socialization and watering down customization will eventually lead to higher retention is mis guided as a lot of people didn't leave because of lack of social tools, that was only part of it. A LOT of the comments I saw were that the game is a boring, limited, repetitive end game loop and nothing so far has appeared to shake that up.
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IMO, the repetitive play isn't so much the problem though. The game was far more enjoyable and far more repetitive in Y1. The difference is that the loot rewards we got in Y1 were actually worth the repetitive grind. In Y2/Y3, the loot was watered down AND they reduced the grind to make it super easy to get all the endgame stuff. You didn't even need to do the raid to get most of the endgame guns. The endgame guns you couldn't get without doing the raid simply weren't SO much better than the other guns that it would make the grind worth it. Raiding essentially became irrelevant in Y2/Y3, which is why I quit the game. I don't mind the repetitive play so long as its fun to play through and the rewards are worth it. But, as I have stated several times on here, NOBODY wants to run the same raid 80+ times just for stupid cosmetics. We want worthwhile prizes! And we can't have those kind of prizes unless PVP and PVE no longer share the same sandboxes. Because weapons that are strong enough to be powerful and fun in PVE are not going to be balanced in PVP. And in D2? No separation of PVP from PVE and even MORE emphasis on PVP. It's not going to be a fulfilling PVE experience for many players out there.
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Bearbeitet von Devasstator: 6/30/2017 8:56:48 PMThat's true. The rewards were not worth it in year 2 and 3 and when I realized it was grinding for skin swaps and cosmetics, I left. Lasted a month into ROI and 3 weeks of ROI (aside from the raid it was crap) because the grind isn't worth the reward. Year 1 had a more rewarding feeling somewhat. Also a lot of rage and I feel there is a balance between giving loot away and having to grind it literally 50 (vex and gally) to over 100 times for a drop (nercochasm for me). Deej also made it clear that they went for the pie, not the slice (the hardcore) and have structured all simification around it. At least now they have some clear direction I guess. They said they know they are risking some things and know some people may not choose to continue on the journey.
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[quote]They said they know they are risking some things and know some people may not choose to continue on the journey.[/quote] I'm going to guess more than they calculated. The Pie they appear to be aiming after in D2 is the 10% of hardcore ultra sweaty PVPers. Whatever ultra-casuals stay for the substandard PVE will be a bonus to them. The changes they're making to D2 for the sake of PVP is going to cost them a lot of people who are a part of that pie. I hope this big risk makes them pay a heavy price because you can't make a great game by taking things people loved OUT of the game.
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Bearbeitet von ZavalasLimpWrist: 6/28/2017 10:06:48 PMYou missed one variable in the third paragraph. Console users who switched to PC.
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That's true I suppose, but I certainly wouldn't anticipate those numbers to be exceedingly large. If I was a betting man, I would say no more than 20% are planning on doing that.
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Well of course D2 wont beat D1 in sales at launch. So many people bought D1 thinking it was going to be amazing. But know they know that it was the opposite of amazing.
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I think its going to be closer than most people expect. The fact that they are opening up the game to a whole new audience (PC gamers) alone will help bolster their numbers. And it is hard to tell those who bloviate that they are going to quit the game, but will actually keep playing in D2, and those who will put their money where their mouth is, like myself (Still don't own RoI). The bottom line is that if they were truly successful with D2, they'll maintain a large percentage of their core customers from PS/XBX, and they'll increase their sales numbers beyond what they had before based on sales to PC gamers. I just don't believe that is going to happen given everyones reactions to the D2 reveal and E3 info.
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Bearbeitet von REVIVE PHARMER: 6/28/2017 8:30:47 PM💯% on the money. PVE playing second fiddle- check Game altered to favor PvP- check No balance separation- check Abilities/Weapons whitewashed-check For me, D2 is DOA. I won't touch it. I was debating but when I heard they were taking out Self-rez, I'm out. I've mained a Sunsinger Warlock since I started mid HoW. I can't imagine Destiny without it.
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That is my assessment, though I'm withholding final judgment till i actually play it. But I'm guessing that by playing the game, I'm going to confirm my initial impressions of it, and I doubt it will do anything to convince me I am wrong. Bungie needs to learn: they can't make this game better by removing things we LOVE from the game.
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I agree. I have zero sense of excitement with ragards to D2. It feels MEH to me as well.
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Yep. Actually, with what we know about the game, MEH seems like too big of a compliment. It's simply removed much of what I loved about the first game, and marginalized the rest. Then it put more emphasis on the PVP, which for me, was never meat and potatoes.
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They've already said preorders are breaking records and were sold out on many places. What records those were and how a digital edition it's sold out is beyond me.
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220,000 TOTAL pre-orders for both PS4 and XBox 1 isn't breaking any record(s). Those that say otherwise don't know the numbers.
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Perhaps those PC players are pre-ordering this game like mad knowing Bungie doesn't exactly enforce its anti-cheating policies...
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What was vanilla numbers and what your source please
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Its easy to make that claim, but I have seen a large number of people here indicating that they are on pre-order for the purposes of getting early access to the beta, and they will most likely be cancelling their pre-order after the beta. So I don't think those numbers are going to tell you much anyways. But one thing Bungie is discounting right now and they are hoping will be proven wrong with the Beta is how skeptical players really are of D2 given the fact that it was developed entirely around PVP, that PVP won't be separated from PVE (meaning Y2/Y3 issues could plague the game in the future), and that people are genuinely upset with some of the changes they have made to the game and the direction it is going in. Those players certainly won't be pre-ordering, and will thereafter be much less likely to buy into the game at all. It'll be interesting to watch how it develops, but given that they have given an entirely new customer base (PC players) access to the game, if those numbers aren't DRASTICALLY better than the sales numbers from Y1, then I'm going to say it right now: it's technically a resounding failure. To grow your customer base, you need to hold on to existing customers and ADD additional customers to your base. If the numbers break even, it'll just show that they swapped one set of customers for another.