I feel it must be 1% with no bad luck protection. If it were 5%, the chances of not having it at 200+ runs are way too low.
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This is untrue its not additive or anything at 200 runs every run you had 5% chance to get it, 95% chance to not get it. And if they are cps you have even less of a chance. Hence why everyone keeps saying do full runs and get your bad luck protection up instead of wasting your time doing cps.