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8/21/2020 6:45:39 PM
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SBMM can't work in Trials because Flawless exists. The PvP gods have that right at least, though for the completely wrong reasons. With perfect matchmaking - that is, every game being a perfectly balanced 50:50 win chance - everyone's chances of going flawless are 0.78%, or 1.6% on a Mercy card. Without the huge skill imbalance in the game, almost no one will go flawless. Trials will literally be a crapshoot for [i]everyone.[/i] The way Trials is set up right now, at least the elite minority can go flawless. Now, I'll grant you that they do so at the expense of the vast majority of players. Yes, better players have an exponentially disproportionate chance of going Flawless, but the [i]overall[/i] percentage of players getting to the LH is higher this way. If my math is right, based on the ELO data I have, I estimate that about 9% of the Trials population will make it to Flawless. I don't know the real numbers but I expect some difference because I can't solve card-based MM on the back of a napkin, so I'm ignoring it. I'm pretty certain I have the order of magnitude right, though. Still, 9% is already 6 to 12 times better, let's say an order of magnitude higher than the expected outcomes for SBMM. It will only be higher the more players are fed into the playlist, since they will almost invariably be less skilled than the ones already playing. This is why Bungie is desperately throwing in carrot-and-stick measures to boost numbers. If the hopeless leave the mode forever, effectively leaving it to the highest skill bracket, it will simply die off. It's a fine balance and while I don't think Bungie got it right, I don't have a better idea to offer. Matchmaking, rewards, and recovs are too tightly intertwined for it to have an obvious solution.
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  • A well thought out and interesting response. Survival and elim have SBMM. In survival I regularly have 10+ win streaks. The SBMM isn't exactly matching. In solo que it's closest but I pull the same streaks there. My matches usually land against opponents that are pretty close to me but there's always a range. In the team playlist you have outliers. A high skill player helping two low skill friends. I expect this is accounted by some sort of averaging of whatever skill measurement bungie uses. But even with that, a high skill player has a bigger impact on the match than just what an averaging of the numbers would indicate. Bottom line is that there is variability even in SBMM. The point isn't to find digital duplicates so matches end in stalemates, but just to tighten up the ranges. If I get beaten because I'm matched against a team that was slightly better than mine and they made the right plays while my team maybe made some mistakes I'm not going to feel jilted. And those types of matches provide opportunity to learn and improve (as opposed to playing against players that are completely out of reach in which you only learn how badly you want SBMM).

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  • I agree with the general fair fight premise that SBMM is supposed to provide, but as you clearly demonstrate, Bungie can't get it quite right. To be fair, given the nature of the game, there is way too much variability for skill to be measured precisely, and that's before teams are even in the picture. I remember playing IB against a team of six bubble titans. Once they got one super going, it was game over. No MM system can account for that. The model I used is for 1v1 MM for the reasons stated above. You are right, the inherent variability leaves enough room for individual contribution and team synergy. Skill brackets may be a step in the right direction, but they also have the problem of uneven population distribution. I have suggested elsewhere that SBMM be implemented with equal population brackets instead, as a sort of middle ground between fair and random MM. This is identical of having, say, 5 football leagues of 20 teams each. The only bracket with a large skill gap will the the top 20%, but those are the people who are the most competitive anyway, and also those who are likely the most context-adaptive. The bottommost bracket is easy to get out of given the chance since it basically involves learning the literal basics of the game, so it will mostly be a training ground for new players. I think it's a reasonable compromise. Matchmaking aside, this still leaves the problem of rewards. With SBMM, my flawless becomes identical to TrueVanguard's. That would be ridiculous. In any sports league, the higher the level, the higher the rewards. If we have clearly defined leagues, then rewards should be bound to the league. Top level cosmetics would only be obtainable by going Flawless in the highest league. Emblems and titles, same deal. Loot... perhaps in much the same way we have it in Nightfalls? So... Grandmaster, Master, Legendary, Adept, and Heroic leagues, each representing 20% of the population as sorted by skill. Cosmetics and titles clearly showing the league they were earned in. Higher loot chances in higher leagues (but [i]not[/i] exclusive to them!) And within the respective leagues, keep the current MM system (connection + card.) How does it sound?

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  • [quote]I agree with the general fair fight premise that SBMM is supposed to provide, but as you clearly demonstrate, Bungie can't get it quite right. To be fair, given the nature of the game, there is way too much variability for skill to be measured precisely, and that's before teams are even in the picture. I remember playing IB against a team of six bubble titans. Once they got one super going, it was game over. No MM system can account for that. The model I used is for 1v1 MM for the reasons stated above. You are right, the inherent variability leaves enough room for individual contribution and team synergy. Skill brackets may be a step in the right direction, but they also have the problem of uneven population distribution. I have suggested elsewhere that SBMM be implemented with equal population brackets instead, as a sort of middle ground between fair and random MM. This is identical of having, say, 5 football leagues of 20 teams each. The only bracket with a large skill gap will the the top 20%, but those are the people who are the most competitive anyway, and also those who are likely the most context-adaptive. The bottommost bracket is easy to get out of given the chance since it basically involves learning the literal basics of the game, so it will mostly be a training ground for new players. I think it's a reasonable compromise. Matchmaking aside, this still leaves the problem of rewards. With SBMM, my flawless becomes identical to TrueVanguard's. That would be ridiculous. In any sports league, the higher the level, the higher the rewards. If we have clearly defined leagues, then rewards should be bound to the league. Top level cosmetics would only be obtainable by going Flawless in the highest league. Emblems and titles, same deal. Loot... perhaps in much the same way we have it in Nightfalls? So... Grandmaster, Master, Legendary, Adept, and Heroic leagues, each representing 20% of the population as sorted by skill. Cosmetics and titles clearly showing the league they were earned in. Higher loot chances in higher leagues (but [i]not[/i] exclusive to them!) And within the respective leagues, keep the current MM system (connection + card.) How does it sound?[/quote] It sounds like a good idea on paper. But. Allow me to put that into real world practice. So, Timmy here is currently a 0.2 kd and can't get flawless. He cries and cries and cries and yet he can't get that sweet flawless glow and he thinks its unfair that he can't. So he cries for a separate loot pool for the sweats so they only play each other. An incentive for them to keep playing, but in a different "league". New cosmetics, adept weapons, whatever. Now Timmy is happy. He is playing people closer to his level and he gets that sweet glow. But then he sees Barry. Barry has the glow AND an adept ornament. So Timmy, again, cries and cries and cries because now he feels its not fair that he can't get the adept ornament. So he cries for a separate loot pool for the sweats of the sweats so they only play each other. An incentive for them to keep playing... Hang on. Its going in a loop. Oh damn....

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  • Actually gotta say, sounds like a really good idea!!

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