If it is based on when that thrall emerges and dies; then it is on a timer. People might be wrong about what triggers it, but it's still on a timer.
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Yeah. I suppose I worded my post very wrong. I'll edit it. This is what I was trying to say. Timer not based on when ogres die or first shriker, but when the thrall shows up or dies.
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And enemies start spawning once the door is open. So thrall spawn timer leads to door close timer.
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Uh...yeah. Right.