Im writing this to hopefully help some of the community understand exactly how RNG works and thus how Xur works. First off we need some rough numbers to work from (I know they aren't exact but they should get the point across). lets say there are 15 exotic guns that can drop in this game. This means that any gun dropping from cur has a 1/15 chance of dropping any particular week. The game has been out roughly 24 weeks and Ghorn has dropped 1 time. So Ghorns 1/15 or 2/30 drop rate is well within the norm for drop rates. All this seems simple enough but i keep hearing things like "Dragons breath has dropped multiple times this means that its not RNG". People on these forums seem to think once a gun drops it has a lower percentage of dropping next week. This is called a gamblers fallacy and you can read up on it here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy but i will give a quick rundown for those who don't want to read the definition. If i ask someone heads or tails on a coin what are the odds of them being right. Its a 1/2 chance. Now if i flip a coin and get 3 heads straight and ask them what the odds are for flipping a forth straight heads most people will say very low. but that is false, because the odds haven't changed. The odds of a fourth heads is still 1/2. Thats because each flip of the coin is independent of the other flips. Just like each week every one of Xur's rolls is independent of the previous one. Next week it is just as likely that Xur will have the exact same gun for sale.We are also looking at a very small data set being that this game is new just like flipping a coin 4 times is a small data set to find out if the coin is weighted to give a higher percentage chance to heads or tails. Its very likely that any particular item won't achieve its actual drop rate because the data set is so small. if we had 10000s of Xur drops and only 1 Ghorn it would be safe to assume statistically that Ghorn is weighted differently but as of right now it is crazy that people are saying Xur is not RNG because they aren't getting the drops they wanted. If anyone needs further explanation i will try to reply to any and all statistic questions people have. Edit: i would love to hear from anyone that could explain to me statistically why xur us bullshit and not not RNG