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5/20/2012 10:25:49 AM
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The chances of ANYTHING happening are 50/50

Right now there is a 50/50 chance that an asteroid will smash through my roof. it will either happen. or it wont. its like heads or tails. there is also a 50/50 chance that a unicorn will appear in my kitchen in the next 5 minutes. It will either happen. or it wont. its like heads or tails. my logic is undeniable.
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  • [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] funkbrotha10 [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Wikked Navajoe [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Bearded Elf [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] funkbrotha10 my logic is undeniable.[/quote]No, there's only a 50% chance its undeniable.[/quote]Paradox? OT: I have no idea why you haven't bought two lottery tickets and won yet with your logic, but I have no examples to disprove you with tonight, so I'll leave it to others.[/quote] buying 2 lottery tickets would not guarantee a win. flipping a coin is a 50/50 chance of heads and tails. but if I flip a coin twice am I guaranteed to get heads and tails? no. [/quote] The odds of flipping a coin and getting a heads once is 50/50. The odds of you flipping a heads twice in a row is 25/50. If you keep dividing you will eventually reach zero, but you cannot divide forever. However the odds that you win the lottery isn't 50/50, otherwise the odds of you getting two wins in a row is 25/50. I should get my Degree-level statistics teacher to sort you out, but I can't. But, however, I can say that if you get three wins of the lottery ticket within a short space of time, you would be supremely lucky. But, however, you seem to forget that there are millions of lottery tickets and that only a few of those are winners, so the odds of winning isn't "Will, or won't", it's more like how many of those will win. In which case it is approximately one in a million, not 50/50. The odds of you getting a winning lottery ticket or not is one in a million, but obviously your not going to say anything other than that it is 50/50, however you are wrong. Otherwise, if you were right, statisticians, need not exist. As for a meteoroid hitting an Earth, its not whether it will or it won't, because there's more than one meteoroid in the universe, there's millions. You have to take into account the number of meteoroids there are. There isn't one, so its not a 50/50 chance. Whether it will or won't has to take into account how many meteoroids there are and what are the odds that one will hit is compounded by the number of meteoroids, so even the odds of one hitting, out of all those meteoroids is one in a million, not 50/50. You are oversimplifying things.

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