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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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Nice math and thought behind this assumption. But this only applies if you look at it as 4 weeks and not as week by week. If that were the case If you're looking at a clump of weeks rather then one by one I would suggest looking at EVERY week xur has ever sold. Keep dating back and count them up because you can't just choose 4 weeks and say it's not possible! Either is Week by Week or Beginning of time for Xur. That's the choices here and if it's from the beginning.. xur can be dated back 3 years + in which case it doesn't sound unreasonable for him to sell them 4 weeks in a row (Also he sold 2 then sunbreakers and then 3 not 4 in a row http://destiny.wikia.com/wiki/X%C3%BBr/Visit_History) If you look at it at a week by week basis then technically everything has an equal chance to be sold and it would make perfect sense that something could be sold 3 times in a row if you looked at my algorithms in my topic. Giving items multiple "Roll numbers" would mean they have greater chances. If VV had 5 chances same as the rest then each week it is possible to roll 3 of those needed numbers to get the item to be sold. It isn't that hard to believe it could be sold 3 times in a row. But if you look at the percentage of it being sold 3 weeks in a row and only those 3 weeks you will see a slim percentage but thats on the basis xur was only ever around for 3 weeks and that the game knows what the past week sold. If that was the case then bungie could easily implement a "wall" that prevented such things happening but since it works week by week (That's what I believe) there is no such thing needed.
