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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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Edited by CTDMUDRUNNER: 11/28/2014 9:45:32 PMYour percent of selling consecutively is "correct" but the chance of selling a certain piece is about 17% not counting class items? I don't think math proves this. With at the same time I feel bungie would be smart enough, no matter how much some hate them, to change the item being sold. EDIT: not taking into thought weighted effect maybe in there. I just feel bungie is smarter then this. And I think being able to on Playstation set time back a year before the game launched and still see items from Xur? I don't think bungie was setting up weekly items from Xur a year before launch.
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RNG doesn't necessarily mean every item has a fair chance of dropping. Some items will drop more. Also, I don't know if you've ever looked at an RNG system for an MMORPG style game, but some legendary items drop more often than others. I haven't seen Bungie's RNG but I'm sure they have some items rarer than others and god knows what other system they have up for Xur. Just be glad he hasn't sold the same weapon for 6 weeks in a row. I'm glad I've gotten a new weapon every week for the last 4 weeks.
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1 ReplyWhat if xur has sold every exotic peice of armor since the first week. And weapons. Now tell me, would people still play this game?
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To many numbers :c
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That is hilarious. You say it's not possible because there is only a small chance of it happening? You admit it your own math it's possible so you did nothing to prove its not RNG. All you did was prove that the likelihood of it is small.
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Edited by X CARLO GUTI X: 11/28/2014 8:56:46 PMIn my personal humble opinion, I'm certain to myself that Xûr is not RNG by any means. I believe in totality that xûr's inventory is pre chosen. Just by using real life logic anyone can deduce it's not RNG based. How many times a weapon has been sold twice? 3 times only...red death, truth(twice in short time) and suros regime. If it was really RNG we would probably by now had a weapon sold about 3 to 4 times. What a coincidence that xûr has yet to sell only what? 3 more weapons? (Correct me if wrong on this) that's it? He's about to be done selling all exotic weapons mmm....what a coincidence...NOT. Use your logic people. The armor on the other hand it's more limited for each character so we see the same armor over and over again. Yet for warlocks xûr just can't sell anything other than voidfangs and Sunbreakers....mmmm...what a coincidence...NOT. also for the very first time he sold last week the hunter gauntlets...wonder why until now...not a coincidence. Same goes for the no back up plans for titans...only sold once before sold again last week. When everyone in the community is begging for those 2 gauntlets. This whole xûr thing is just pre chosen by a team. Whoever doesn't want to open their eyes...to each their own. Obviously bungie trying to make the armor less accessible. Helmets too have been a bit difficult to come by...that's why xûr also sells engrams. Which then again bungie made it hard with the engrams being random for each class...this to make you think about creating a new class and play the game more. XÛR IS NOT RNG...PERIOD! Edit 1: By the way just want to clarify that I have nothing against xûr...I love xûr and I love destiny. Just want people to open their eyes, xûr is not RNG based...it's pre chosen!
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Edited by Frosty Flake, Kell of Oggs: 11/28/2014 8:55:08 PMEdit: Math my math was wrong, and I am tired.
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Here is an idea I had that could fix the some of the problems we have with Xur: [url]http://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/81092499/0/0[/url]
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The biggest problem I see is that you are okay with making an assumption of fact based on small probability, which is fallacious, regardless if the math is accurate or not. In other words, even if there is a tiny chance of an event occurring randomly, then [i][b]there is a chance it has happened randomly[/b][/i]. Your premise is at odds with your conclusion.
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The fact that you did this math, and took the time to post it makes me feel sorry for you.
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Warlocks are a running joke, just like this game.
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2 RepliesGetting the voidfang vestments is 16.66% every week regardless of what happened the previous week so your assumption of taking it to the 4th power is a false assumption. If I flip a coin and it's heads, is the next flip still not a 50/50 chance? I learned this principle in college Statistics.
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It's still RNG. RNG is based off of numbers and percentages, it might be weighted sure, but it's still RNG no matter how you look at it lol.
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2 RepliesYou could have just linked the community statement from Bungie stating that it's selected by a team weekly. I lol'd.
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Wait, you just proved that it's mathematically possible? How is that proof? However unlikely this is you proved absolutely nothing...
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I'm statistically less likely to find legendary engrams because I play much less then my friends. Yet I find more then anyone on my friends list. Math and numbers are not truth. Just probability.
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5 RepliesI'm majoring in statistics and that's not how probability works lol. but I do believe they choose because there has never been a duplicate weapon..
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If it wasnt selected, it could still be random, true randomness says that anything ever could happen for example a pack of cards, you could pull out the ace of hearts, 5,000,000 times in a row after each purely random shuffle of a random selection.
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2 RepliesXur's not RNG, he's a douche. "Oh, you want the Crest of Alpha Lupi? Here, have the Armamentarium again instead."
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If we assume that each week Xur has an chance to generate each of the exotics, while your math is technically correct (in the sense that he has a 6^(-4) chance of rolling voidfang 4 times in a row) that does not mean that your conclusion is correct. First of all, any particular string of outcomes has an equal chance of happening. He would have the same chance to get 4 different items each week. Second of all, as mentioned 4 events is not statistically significant. In a random system, even when the global behaviour can be determined, local behaviour can always be crazy. It's the same reason why I can kill Atheon 16 times and only receive a vanity item and ascendant materials. So while it sucks that he's once again selling the same armor, the culprit is once again rng.
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What if it's weighted rng...
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1 ReplyYour math is wrong anyways for probability. It should be to the power of 3 not 4. As the first voidfang roll doesn't count as a probability. This is where your are starting, you're basically saying there is a 100% chance the first roll is there because it is. Your answer would be if it were to appear one more week in a row. If you rolled a die it's not crazy to think it lands on the same number 4 times.
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5 RepliesEdited by I Try you Cry: 11/28/2014 4:24:51 PMWould this not be conflicting with the fact his stock was viewable via the PS4 time glitch? That'd mean someone was already picking out his stocks prior to the game releasing? Edit: It's not rocket surgery guys.
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1 ReplyFour trials is not a statistically significant sample size.
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1 ReplyHe sold the armamentarium 4 weeks in a row and a couple times before and after, probably selling it right now! I don't even know what he's got
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9 Repliesyou're completely wrong. you're trying to use logic that doesn't exist, "law of averages" is fake. every week, it is a 1/6 change of Voidfang Vestments, the probability never changes just cause it happened the week before.
