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Edited by ThePomegranate:
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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ITT: speculation equals proof
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Edited by H3MR0lD RAGE: 11/29/2014 6:11:24 AMYour rng math is wrong here's why, Xur has a 50% chance to sell voidfang and 50% chance o sell sunbreakers. But here's where it get interesting, the last four weeks Xur had a 100% chance to sell voidfang and on the other weekends when he sold sunbreakers it was a 100% chance for that. So we can safely say that 60% of the time Xur will sell voidfang 100% of the time.
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4 RepliesIt has been mentioned previously. Each week is a separate entity. This means each week there is a 16.66% chance of receiving any piece of gear. Doesn't matter how many times it happens. There is no correlation between what happened this week and what will happen next week. If you flip a coin there is a 50/50 shot of getting heads. The next time you flip there is still a 50/50 chance.
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IM scared that when the dlc hits, bungie will modify xur by either replacing him/changing his inventory. I've done so much to get the item i've wanted but i think my days are numbered.
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Actually your "proof" makes it more likely for xur to be rng. An experiment exists which has to do with what is truly random and what people perceive to be random. The way the experiment is conducted is they take 2 groups of people the first group is assigned to flip a coin 100 time and write each result in order while the second is supposed to come up with a sequence of coin flips that seem random. The results of this test are that the group flipping the coin will almost always have a list that shows 1 or more runs of 5+ in a row, but the second team will almost always peak at a run of three and never go over a run of 5. The result? Very low probability things happen all the time but people have a very difficult time recreating low probability because they feel it is not random.
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Yep voidfang chances to show up on xur is 34.68% because voidfang drop rate on rng is 0.76% and xur sells item that does not obtain easily on RNG so if you calculate it all 1.97803x3.87485-3pie+0.79768 that will be the chances to show up the voidfang on xur..
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3 RepliesThe probability of anything happening 4 weeks in a row is the same though. 4 voidfang is just as likely as 3 voidfang 1 sunbreaker. You could look at the odds of praxic fire not being sold at all for 12 weeks and say that it's very unlikely that an rng scenario created that pattern, but it would still be possible. Lastly, I thought deej said in an interview that it wasn't rng, is that just a myth?
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6 Replies37% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
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Edited by LostVanguard: 11/29/2014 4:14:28 AMI agree. I don't think the loot system is at all random. It's not an RNG. The loot system, Xyr included, is a complex system and algorithm that acts so as to control player progress and level. This game is all about gear. Better equipment and improving equipment is why we keep playing this game, running the raid, the nightfall, the weekly and daily heroics. More powerful equipment is the carrot that dangles in front of us. Now with the DLC we will be able to get even more powerful gear that will let us get to LVL 32!! (Oh and what about all the work time we spent to get to our LVL 30 gear and 300 weapons???)
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Complete failure. Any permutation over the last 4 instances will retrospectively have the EXACT SAME PROBABILITY. IE you could go through what he has sold over the last 4 weeks every f'ing week and the math will be exactly the same, regardless of what he has sold. Math iz seryus biznass bruh.
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2 RepliesWhere is xur today?
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Nice math dude. I support this ^^^
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I don't think Xur is random, but that is an absolutely awful attempt at proving it. There are countless (not actually countless, but I don't feel like dealing with factorials right now) possible arrangements for him to generate, so the probability of him generating any one of them is very low. However, no one ordered arrangement is any less likely than the others, and he would have to generate something. It's like saying the lottery can't be random because somebody won despite the odds against him being astronomical; it doesn't make any sense because by definition somebody has to win.
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Lol I think bungie knows what it's gunna xur not random
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6 Repliesdude you are very confused about statistics. It resets each week. the previous week plays no role. You can not exponentiate the initial percentage you'd get -blam!- at roulette. source: I taught college mathematics, and now work as an engineer.
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What if it is rng but each item has a different weight. So lets just say sunbreakers is a 25% chance and the vestments is 25% chance and the dragon skull head is only like 10%
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1 ReplyThat is a little more than the chance it get a legendary
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Your calculations are right, but what you are missing is that you have arbitrarily selected particular even (4x voidfang in a row) as "strange" when there is no evidence of that. If I flip 10 coins and I get the sequence HTTHTHTTHH, it looks normal and completely unsurprising. However, there is less than a .1% chance of getting that sequence out of ten flips. In fact, it is the same as the sequence TTTTTTTTTT, which you would probably say is very unlikely. No matter what sequence of exotics you consider, the probability of Xur having those particular exotics is always very, very low. But he has to have SOMETHING, and so one sequence will definitely happen. The trick is that there are a huge number of sequences, all of which occur with low probability. So afterwards you say, that can't be RNG because the chance of this happening is so low. But it could have been 2x voidfang and 2x sunbreaker, of 4x sun breaker, or any other combination that you want. There are so many unlikely events that the probability of at least one of them happening becomes quite high. For instance, the probability that at least one exotic armor appears four times in a row on Xur over a period of 3 months is over 15%. It just so happened to be Voidfang, but there was no reason it couldn't have been another.
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Have you ever heard of Murphy's law? "What CAN happen, WILL happen".
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6 RepliesHere's proof Xur is not RNG.... Ready for it?.... If he is RNG and Titans have gotten the Armamentarium 6 times in a row, Warlocks got Sunbreakers 4 times, Voidfang Vestiments 4 in a row.... WHY HAVENT WE SEEN A WEAPON REPEAT? I could be mistaken but in 3 months he should've repeated a weapon at least 3 or 4 times by now!
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I think it may be some kind of bug
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Edited by fluffywasp: 11/29/2014 3:07:43 AMWhat people need to understand is that compound probability means that the chances of 4 in a row is very low. The chances of any specific combination is very low. However, a combined of all the other possibilities is very high and therefore much more probable.
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2 Replies[quote]So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703[/quote] [quote]Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident. but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance[/quote] 0.01928125% is higher than 0.0007703%, your math is incorrect
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5 RepliesYour math is good bro, It is simple statistics. Definitely cant be random..
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23 RepliesEdited by The Smoker II: 11/30/2014 3:44:13 AMIf you flip a coin a hundred times and it's heads every time the odds of it being heads on flip 101 is still 50/50. Every week when RNG spins it's a 1/6 chance of being any exotic regardless of what happened before. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSc4oLA9e8o Watch this video it very clearly illustrates why compound probability doesn't matter in independent events. The mistake many are making is known as the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players. source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Edit: Wanted to clear up the confusion and show some why this is a common mistake.
