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squirrel dude

squirrel dude

8/9/2012 10:08:45 PM
So a couple of days ago, I proposed doing a community generated survey of the community. [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=73843092]I called it the Grand Experiment[/url] because I like hyperbole. Unfortunately, after some people told me it was a good idea, Foman told me that the threads would be locked in other forums, and that it was against the rules. Naturally, I've done it anyway. After 3 days, I have mostly successfully surveyed 9 forums. This thread is here to discuss the data gathered by this "Grand Experiment," and if it has any relevance or meaning for the community as a whole moving forward. But first, let me introduce myself, and why I did this. [b]Introduction[/b] [u]Why I did this[/u] Because it would be cool to do a survey of the forum. No really, that's about all the reasoning that went into "spamming" the forum with polls to try and survey it. Okay, so there was a little more to it. I also wanted to see if there was any way to add statistics to discussions about The Flood, The Community Forum, and general forum policy changes. Specifically I wanted to look at 4 things. How active the forums were in relation to each other. What percentage of active members considered themselves to be "Floodians." How representative of other forums the Community Forum actually was. How active "Floodians" were in the Community forum. [u]Who am I[/u] Hi, I'm squirrel dude. You may remember me from such threads as [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=55650603]The History of the Flood Forum, Revised Second Edition[/url], [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=11663449]The Flood Library V2[/url], [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=63994184]The Last Flood Bar[/url], or [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=46881712]Long Thread about making The Flood a better place[/url]. My signature says "I'm a Floodian." But you, dear reader, only need to know that most people would probably call me crazy, and use the linked threads as clear evidence. But don't worry, I can spelling and grammar pretty well, so my prose shouldn't pose too much of an obstacle to you understanding what I have done. [b]The Experiment[/b] [u]How I gathered data[/u] I polled the following forums, the link will take you to each poll. [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74066647]The Bungie Community[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74043823]The Bungie Universe[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74018104]The Flood Forum[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74018200]Halo 1 & 2 for PC[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74018283]Halo 1[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74043892]Halo 2[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74066811]Halo 3[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74043957]Halo 3: ODST[/url] [url=http://www.bungie.net/Forums/posts.aspx?postID=74066726]Halo: Reach[/url] However, due to the nature that under the rules I was spamming, I could not simply have the poll sit there, bumping it every so often, to see if it could gather as much data as possible. I expected the threads to be locked. As such, I decided record the votes after one hour, recording those in the thread and my spreadsheet. I hoped this would limit or eliminate the effect of a thread being able to stay at the top of a front page for a day, while another was locked after 10 minutes. In most cases, the threads were not locked before 1 hour was up. The Halo 3, Halo Reach, and The Bungie Community polls were all locked around 30 minutes after they were posted. I will address how to treat these numbers when we get to Data analysis. [u]The Data[/u] [url=http://s296.photobucket.com/albums/mm183/WofMD/?action=view¤t=ScreenShot2012-08-09at35155PM.png]Here is a screencap[/url] of the spreadsheet with all the numbers in it. For those that don't to squint at it. I'll write the results here in terms of the population percentage that said they were Floodians (Option B), or posted in The Community forum(Option C), the percentage of people who said they were Floodians and Posted in The Community forum, the total number of voters, and percentage of activity. Option A is automatically 100%. [b]The Bungie Community:[/b] - Option B: 14.286% - Option C: 100.000% - Option B and C: 14.286% - Total Number of Votes: 14 - % Activity: 16.667% [i]Thread was locked after 40 minutes[/i] [b]The Bungie Universe:[/b] - Option B: 60.000% - Option C: 80.000% - Option B and C: 40.000% - Total Number of Votes: 5 - % Activity: 5.952% [b]The Flood Forum:[/b] - Option B: 58.621% - Option C: 39.655% - Option B and C: 18.966% - Total Number of Votes: 58 - % Activity: 69.048% [b]Halo 1 & 2 for PC:[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 50.000% - Option B and C: 0% - Total Number of Votes: 2 - % Activity: 2.381% [b]Halo 1:[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 0% - Option B and C: 0% - Total Number of Votes: 0 - % Activity: 0% [b]Halo 2:[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 0% - Option B and C: 0% - Total Number of Votes: 0 - % Activity: 0% [b]Halo 3:[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 100.000% - Option B and C: 0% - Total Number of Votes: 1 - % Activity: 1.190% [i]Thread was locked after 28 minutes[/i] [b]Halo 3: ODST[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 0% - Option B and C: 0% - Total Number of Votes: 0 - % Activity: 0% [b]Halo: Reach:[/b] - Option B: 0% - Option C: 25.000% - Option B and C: - Total Number of Votes: 4 - % Activity: 4.762% [i]Thread was locked after 33 minutes[/i] [b]Cumulative Percentages[/b] - Option B: 46.429% - Option C: 52.381 - Option B and C: 36.585 - Total Votes: 84 [b]Results[/b] So, according to the numbers, about 46.5% of the community say they are Floodians, about 52.381% of the community say they post in The Community forum, and about one third of all people who say they are Floodians also say they post in The Community forum. The Flood, The Community Forum, and the Universe forum are the 3 most active forums on the website, with The Flood being far more active than any other forum. Now, what to do with the threads that are locked. Well, since they only lasted about 30 minutes, let's see what they say when their votes are double, and the proportion holds steady. For example, if 2 people picked options A and B in 30 minutes, then let's say 4 people would pick option A and B in 60 minutes. [b]Cumulative[/b] - Option B: 41.121% - Option C: 58.879% - Option B and C: 39.583 - Total Votes: 107 This of course isn't a perfect estimate, but it shows that the numbers I've presented aren't all that different that they would be had I been given an extra 40 minutes. This is probably because The Flood had so many more voters than the other forums that it would take a large contribution from other forums to change the overall results. [b]Conclusion[/b] So, there are some interesting things that can be taken away from these results. The most obvious is that The Flood isn't just more active than the rest of the site right now from 1100 CDT to 1200 CDT, it's over 50% of activity on the website right now. There is also another positive, The Community forum [i]does[/i] represent a (if slight) majority of members active on the forums. That's really good to know, and adds more legitimacy to the opinions presented here. Honestly, the biggest surprise to me is that the percentage of people who said that they were "Floodians" is so high. I expected to see 20% to 30% on a good day. Instead I saw numbers that pointed to "Floodians" being more than 40% of the currently active community. That's stunning for a group that goes by a word we have yet to settle a definition for. So, what does this mean about the community moving forward? Well, maybe not all that much, at least not with a followup study to show long-term trends. As others have pointed out, the website is in a dark period right now. Once Destiny is announced, I expect both the percentage of people who say they are "Floodians," and people who say they post in the Community Forum to drop and start rising again after members start to assimilate into the community. However, the only way to test that would be to do a couple followup studies, and there's no way I'm doing that after I used up any good will I might have left with the forum ninjas. [b]Special Thanks[/b] Thanks to the two members who helped me with this. I'm going to guess they would rather be unnamed, but they know who they are. Thanks you two. You helped a ton. [quote]I just told you how I knowingly, and flagrantly broke the rules of the forum, and I expect to be banned. However, I think the numbers are interesting, and should be discussed. If someone would be kind enough to quote this message in their post, so that after I go away for a while it can still be discussed, that would be wonderful. If someone wanted to go the extra mile, and copied this into a word document, and then waited until I disappeared to post it, so as to make it easier to scroll through the page, I would give you two thumbs up, a cookie, and a pegboy.[/quote] [Edited on 08.09.2012 2:23 PM PDT]

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